Calamity-prone Roma welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Olimpico on Sunday, hoping to steer clear of any off-field errors against opposition they gifted a 3-0 win to in the autumn.
When these sides last met earlier this season, a goalless draw was later transmuted into a three-goal Hellas win due to the Giallorossi fielding an ineligible player.
Match preview
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Having effectively handed over all three points in their last encounter with this week's opposition, due to including Amadou Diawara when he was incorrectly registered, Roma followed up that embarrassing administrative cock-up last week, by erroneously bringing on an extra substitute during their Coppa Italia exit to Spezia - resulting in another 3-0 defeat.
Though they bounced back to beat the same opponents in league action last weekend - a thrilling 4-3 success, sealed by Lorenzo Pellegrini's injury-time winner - Paulo Fonseca's side seem to have become their own worst enemies in recent weeks.
After being thumped by bitter rivals Lazio in the Derby della Capitale and then slumping out of the cup, the Giallorossi will be keen to restore some equilibrium to a positive campaign by posting a second straight win.
Certainly at the Olimpico they are a formidable prospect for all-comers, as Roma have remained unbeaten at home in Serie A so far - the only top tier side to achieve that feat in the first half of the 2020-21 campaign. Furthermore, they have also earned the most points on home turf and registered the joint-most home goals (25, level with both Napoli and Inter).
Roma's record against this week's visitors stacks up well too, as in their last 23 home matches against Verona they have won 18 and never lost once.
As rumblings continue about the potential departure of talismanic striker Edin Dzeko in the coming days, after the Bosnian goal-getter fell out spectacularly with Fonseca, those players included in the coach's next XI must stay focused on the task in hand, with Verona once again exceeding their potential under top tactician Ivan Juric.
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Ahead of their round-ending clash on Sunday evening, the teams are divided by just seven points despite a considerable gulf in resources. Eighth-placed Verona trail their more illustrious counterparts by five spots in the standings but should prove more than a match for the capital club on the basis of last weekend's performance.
An impressive comeback win versus Napoli was totally merited, with Juric's men demonstrating great nous and resilience against their expensively assembled visitors.
Busy playmaker Mattia Zaccagni again netted and set one up in the 3-1 triumph - along with Roma's Henrikh Mkhitaryan, November's 'player of the month' Zaccagni is one of only two midfielders to register at least five goals and five assists in Serie A this season. Inter Milan loanee Federico Dimarco has also been particularly productive of late and has found the target in three of the last four matches.
Hellas have since added speedy Udinese striker Kevin Lasagna to their striking options - though like their incumbent main man Nikola Kalinic, he has struggled for goals this term - which may help them build on a fine defensive record so far.
In the season's first half, the Gialloblu have conceded the joint-fewest goals (18, level with Juventus) and, as a result, remain well-placed to challenge for a European place in the spring.
Roma Serie A form: WWWDLW
Roma form (all competitions): WWDLLW
Hellas Verona Serie A form: LWDWLW
Team News
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Paulo Fonseca will benefit from the return of goalkeeper Antonio Mirante and Roma's most productive attacking player, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, from injury, with both strong candidates to reclaim a starting jersey. Last week's matchwinner Lorenzo Pellegrini is expected to play through the pain of a thigh strain, but Pedro is set to remain sidelined for now.
Up front, on-loan Borja Mayoral starts again in place of deposed Roman deity Edin Dzeko, who may have made his last appearance for the club he has served so well.
The visitors have Giangiacomo Magnani out through suspension, while several others are in doubt due to thigh issues, including Stefano Sturaro (who joined from Genoa with a pre-existing injury), Andrea Favilli and Ronaldo Vieira.
Captain Miguel Veloso and fellow midfielder Marco Benassi remain out with calf problems, but there could be a debut in store for the freshly-acquired Kevin Lasagna - most probably from the bench, as Nikola Kalinic should be given another opportunity as the lone striker in Ivan Juric's 3-4-2-1 formation.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Mirante; Mancini, Smalling, Ibanez; Karsdorp, Veretout, Villar, Spinazzola; Pellegrini, Mkhitaryan; Mayoral
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Dawidowicz, Gunter, Dimarco; Faraoni, Tameze, Ilic, Lazovic; Barak, Zaccagni; Kalinic
We say: Roma 1-0 Hellas Verona
Roma's superior home record could be the deciding factor in what is sure to be a tightly-contested encounter, with little to separate the sides in terms of formation or approach.
Losing the individual quality of experienced campaigners Edin Dzeko and Pedro would be insurmountable for some squads, but Paulo Fonseca has enough talent in reserve to eke out a win against their Venetian visitors on Sunday.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 68.6%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 13.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 1-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 1-2 (3.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
