Expect to see a real battle on Sunday at Banc of California Stadium, as Los Angeles FC wrap up their three-game homestand versus Real Salt Lake.
The Black-and-Gold put together an emphatic second half performance last week against Sporting Kansas City, scoring three times to win 4-0, while Salt Lake hung on for a big three points to stay above the playoff line, beating Dallas 3-2.
Match preview
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Los Angeles were in desperate need of a pick-me-up last Friday, and they responded in a big way, capitalising on their man-advantage in the final half hour, to move right back in the thick of the playoff race in the Western Conference.
As the season winds down the stakes remain sky-high this weekend as they have a chance to draw even with Real Salt Lake, who they trail by three points in the ultra-competitive postseason battle.
What is perhaps most impressive about their victory a week ago is the fact that they were able to dominate that game, despite missing over a dozen players who were either injured or on international duty.
Bob Bradley's side have had their fair share of quality scoring opportunities over their previous three games with 26 combined shots on target and that pressure is starting to pay off with seven goals in their last two matches.
With 12 games remaining in the regular season there is no time for them to rest on their laurels, especially given that they are only two points ahead of Dallas, who sit in 11th, so a couple of losses could set them back and hurt their postseason chances.
In 2020, they earned points in eight of their last 12 games, and if they want to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, they might need to pull off a similar run.
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Real Salt Lake were able to hang onto the final playoff position in the Western Conference with a hard-fought home victory last Saturday.
Claret and Cobalt fired a season high 12 shots on target in that match, and they were as relentless in attack as we have seen all season, and they needed to be, as the Toros kept coming back.
That win comes at a critical time for this team, not just because it keeps them in a playoff spot, but it was a huge statement game for this side who were very poor in the second half of their previous match, losing 4-1 to the Vancouver Whitecaps.
It was the first win for interim boss Pablo Mastroeni, who knows that his side need to maintain that momentum into their next two matches with LA and the San Jose Earthquakes right on their heels in the standings.
While at this stage of the season you will take a win however you can get it, there are still some areas that need work, namely eliminating all of their sloppy passes of which there were plenty against Dallas and Vancouver.
Getting into strong attacking positions and moving the ball quicker will be critical against the Black-and-Gold, who have already beaten them twice this year.
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Team News
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Rookie centre-back Mamadou Fall was a force in the air for LAFC last Friday, scoring on two powerful headers thanks to a pair of brilliant set-ups from Eduard Atuesta, who leads the team with six assists this season.
LA might not have four players back in time for this match as Jose Cifuentes and Diego Palacios were at the World Cup 2022 qualifiers for Ecuador this week, Kim Moon-hwan was representing South Korea and Brian Rodriguez was with Uruguay, while Tony Leone, Christian Torres and Tristan Blackmon were all with the USA.
Kwadwo Opoku and Erik Duenas have left knee problems, Eddie Segura is still nursing a right knee issue, Carlos Vela is expected to miss another game with a right quad strain, Julian Gaines has a pelvic stress fracture and Alvaro Quezada is likely to miss with a chest injury.
Justin Meram was the only player for Salt Lake to be called up for international duty, as he was representing Iraq, while Aaron Herrera will be suspended following his yellow card against Dallas.
Jonathan Menendez scored his first goal of the season last week to go along with three assists, while Zack Farnsworth, Andrew Brody, Jeizon Ramirez, Zac MacMath, Bobby Wood and David Ochoa are all question marks with undisclosed injuries.
Justen Glad got the opening goal versus the Toros, his second of the year, matching a season high set by the defender back in 2016.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Romero; Ibeagha, Murillo, Fall, Farfan; Blessing, Ginella, Atuesta, Edwards; Jennings, Musovski
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Putna; Morgan, Glad, Silva, Powder; P. Ruiz, Chang; Menendez, Kreilach, Rusnak; Rubin
We say: Los Angeles FC 2-1 Real Salt Lake
Given how close these teams are in the table at the moment we could be in for a very tentative start early on and while each side tend to have their share of giveaways, LA look to be a little sharper at the moment, especially at home where they have only suffered one defeat in their last eight games.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 63.2%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 16.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 1-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.32%), while for a Real Salt Lake win it was 1-2 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.
