The stakes could not be any higher for the Portland Timbers and Real Salt Lake, who will battle for a big three points on Wednesday at Rio Tinto Stadium.
A win would assure that the Timbers take part in the playoffs for a fifth straight season, while RSL are one point back of a postseason berth after dropping a 4-3 decision to the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday.
Match preview
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Sometimes emotions can get the best of you with so much on the line, and that seemed to be the case for Pablo Mastroeni and his side this past weekend.
They have done well all year when it comes to earning points in games that matter, but with two matches left, Salt Lake find themselves trailing in the playoff race and desperately needing some points.
On Saturday, the players got the start that they wanted, going ahead after only nine minutes of play, but they failed to find that killer instinct to put the Quakes away when they had them on the ropes, losing at home for the first time since a 1-0 defeat to Los Angeles FC on July 3.
Last Saturday was only the third time that Claret and Cobalt had conceded multiple goals in a match dating back to September 25, when they gave up six to the Timbers in a 6-1 defeat at Providence Park.
Collectively, this group have suffered more errors than we are used to seeing lately, and they do not have a lot of time to correct those mistakes.
This team seem to win one consistently and then lose one, but at this stage of the campaign, they may need to win consecutive matches to get into the postseason, and RSL have not done that since the middle of September.
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A relentless onslaught by the Timbers helped them snap a three-game losing streak last week as they are on the verge of another playoff appearance, currently on 49 points, sitting in fourth in the Western Conference.
Last Wednesday, they fired 13 shots on goal against San Jose, scoring twice and collecting their first clean sheet since a 1-0 win at home to Inter Miami on October 3.
From start to finish, Portland played with a ton of intensity, which is something that you need at this time of year when fighting for the postseason.
Giovanni Savarese has to be pleased with the kind of resiliency that his team have shown, as his players put San Jose on their heels throughout the match, executing the game plan to near perfection.
Unlike their previous home fixture against the Vancouver Whitecaps, Portland did not take their foot off the gas this time around as they looked sharp defensively, forcing San Jose to play inside with most of the Goonies efforts being from unfavourable shooting positions.
Despite scoring nine goals in their two matches versus RSL this year, they have allowed their share of opportunities against them, with Salt Lake firing nine targeted efforts in each of those encounters, which is something that Savarese will want to fix as Claret and Cobalt have some quality players who can produce moments of brilliance.
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Team News
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On Saturday, Mastroeni made three changes to the starting group that beat Dallas, with Pablo Ruiz being inserted in place of Everton Luiz, Andrew Brody took the place of Jonathan Menendez and Rubio Rubin was preferred over Bobby Wood.
Albert Rusnak had a pair of goals in their defeat to San Jose, as he now has 10 on the year, five fewer than Damir Kreilach, who assisted on the opening goal.
David Ochoa conceded six times in his last start versus the Timbers, the most that he has ever given up in an RSL shirt and the most goals that his team have allowed since a 6-2 defeat against Dallas in 2017.
Dairon Asprilla scored what could go down as the MLS Goal of the Year last Wednesday as his bicycle kick against the Quakes put the game away, his 10th of the year, while Diego Chara was all over the stats sheet last week, scoring his second of the season, while also earning his 100th career disciplinary card (yellow and red cards combined) and leading the Timbers with a pass completion rate of 92.5%.
Steve Clark made five saves, collecting his sixth clean sheet this season and Portland's eighth shutout this year - he has come a long way since the start of this campaign.
Claudio Bravo, who leads the league in tackles won with 54, missed their last game with a left thigh injury, Eryk Williamson has a left ACL tear, Ismaila Jome will not return this season after undergoing left Achilles tendon surgery, Andy Polo previously had right quad and knee surgery and Jeff Attinella had right rectus femoris surgery.
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Herrera, Holt, Glad; Chang, Ruiz, Meram, Julio; Rusnak; Rubin, Kreilach
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Clark; Van Rankin, Tuiloma, Zuparic, Bonilla; Blanco, D. Chara; Fochive, Y. Chara, Asprilla; Mora
We say: Real Salt Lake 2-2 Portland Timbers
The Timbers know how to get the job done when it comes to making the postseason, and they have not had any trouble finding the back of the net versus Claret and Cobalt.
RSL know that their backs are up against the wall at this point, so we should see them fight hard, but managing their emotions down the stretch has been an issue for this side as they have at times failed to channel their energy into something positive.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Salt Lake win with a probability of 58.96%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 19.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Salt Lake win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 1-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Portland Timbers win it was 1-2 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
