PSV Eindhoven play host to PAOK on Thursday night sitting two points adrift of their next opponents in Group E.
While the Dutch outfit require maximum points to edge closer to qualification for the last 32, they will be on the brink of Europa League elimination if they suffer another defeat to the Greek side.
Match preview
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With Roger Schmidt in charge, there was every expectation that PSV Eindhoven would be able to progress through to the knockout stages in relatively comfortable fashion.
However, the defeats to Granada and PAOK have left the Dutch side playing catch-up, and they realistically require all three points on Thursday evening to keep their fate in their own hands.
Achieving that target will be easier said than done after PAOK recorded a 4-1 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this month, scoring all of their goals during a 19-minute period after half time.
PSV have responded with four points from two games in Eredivisie action, but Schmidt would have been bitterly disappointed with how his team succumbed so tamely in Greece.
On the flipside, PAOK will only take confidence from how they dismantled a higher-profile side, a result which maintained their unbeaten record in the group.
Pablo Garcia's team are also unbeaten on the domestic scene, with their only defeats this season coming against FC Krasnodar in the Champions League playoffs.
PAOK have not always shown a ruthless streak during that run of games, but 12 goals have been scored in their four most recent matches.
Karol Swiderski is the man in form, contributing three goals during those encounters, but PAOK are also without a clean sheet from those contests.
PSV Eindhoven Europa League form: LWL
PSV Eindhoven form (all competitions): LWWLWD
PAOK Europa League form: DDW
PAOK form (all competitions): DDWWWW
Team News
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Despite playing 90 minutes for club and country over the past week, Donyell Malen is expected to feature in the PSV attack.
Denzel Dumfries is in line to return at right-back, while Mohamed Ihattaren and Noni Madueke are competing for a spot on the left flank.
Mario Gotze was ill at the weekend, but the German playmaker may return to the squad for this game.
Garcia could revert back to the PAOK team which performed so well in the last fixture between the sides.
That would see Omar El Kaddouri, Diego Biseswar and Antonio Mirko-Colak return to the first XI after beginning the game against PAS Giannina on the substitutes' bench.
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Mvogo; Dumfries, Teze, Boscagli, Max; Gakpo, Rosario, Sangare, Ihattaren; Zahavi, Malen
PAOK possible starting lineup:
Zivkovic; Soares, Varela, Crespo, Giannoulis; Schwab, Kaddouri, Douglas; Zivkovic, Colak, Biseswar
We say: PSV Eindhoven 2-1 PAOK
Falling at the group stages of this competition would be regarded as a disaster for PSV, but the higher stakes may bring out an improved performance from this group of players. PAOK could get caught between looking to avoid defeat and pushing for a pivotal three points, leaving us to predict a narrow win for the home team.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 32.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-0 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
