Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sibenik win with a probability of 39.12%. A win for Osijek had a probability of 31.83% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sibenik win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.82%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Osijek win was 0-1 (11.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sibenik would win this match.