Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 30

Apr 4, 2021 at 12pm UK

St Mary's Stadium

Southampton
3 - 2
Burnley

Armstrong (31'), Ings (42'), Redmond (66')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Wood (12' pen.), Vydra (28')

Reaction

Burnley manager Sean Dyche pictured on March 6, 2021

Sean Dyche unhappy with penalties not given at St Mary's

The Burnley manager felt his side should have had two second-half penalties as Southampton came back from 2-0 down to win 3-2.

Apr 4, 15:50

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 46.73%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 26.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Burnley
46.73%	26.94%	26.33%

Both teams to score 47.31%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.83%

57.17%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.97%

78.03%

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.53%

24.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.09%

58.91%

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.64%

37.36%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.86%

74.14%

Score Analysis

Southampton 46.72%

Burnley 26.33%

Draw 26.94%

Southampton	Draw	Burnley
1-0 @ 12.86% 2-0 @ 9.06% 2-1 @ 8.92% 3-0 @ 4.25% 3-1 @ 4.19% 3-2 @ 2.06% 4-0 @ 1.5% 4-1 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.42% Total : 46.72%	1-1 @ 12.67% 0-0 @ 9.14% 2-2 @ 4.39% Other @ 0.74% Total : 26.94%	0-1 @ 9% 1-2 @ 6.24% 0-2 @ 4.43% 1-3 @ 2.05% 0-3 @ 1.45% 2-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 1.72% Total : 26.33%