Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-23s win with a probability of 58.4%. A win for Derby County Under-23s had a probability of 21.56% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.36%) and 3-1 (7.03%). The likeliest Derby County Under-23s win was 1-2 (5.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Under-23s would win this match.
