Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton Under-21s win with a probability of 49.6%. A win for Sunderland Under-21s had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.13%) and 3-2 (5.14%). The likeliest Sunderland Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Everton Under-21s would win this match.