Plymouth Argyle need a win to assure themselves a League One playoff spot for at least another week when they play host to Charlton Athletic at Home Park on Saturday.
The Pilgrims are winless in their previous five league fixtures, currently holding down the final playoff position, while the Addicks have moved up to 11th in the table and are unbeaten in four straight matches in all competitions.
Match preview
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Through the early portion of this campaign, Plymouth looked like a runaway train who could not lose, going unbeaten in 16 consecutive league games, but lately, that train has come to a screeching halt, as they have only collected one point in their last five domestic affairs.
That form has dropped them from top spot in League One into a dogfight to remain in the top six, with the potential of earning a promotion into the Championship next season, as they are currently tied with Sheffield Wednesday on points but above the Owls on goal difference.
In this league, the margins between winning and losing are incredibly thin, and the new Pilgrims manager Steven Schumacher is starting to realise that and calling on his team to provide a little more quality in the final third, having failed to score multiple goals on their current winless run in league play.
Starting matches on the right foot has been an issue for them, conceding a first-half strike in their last three league fixtures, although they have shown a lot of character recently to get themselves back into a match, earning a 1-1 draw with MK Dons and putting together a solid second half last weekend against Sunderland, narrowly losing 2-1.
The hope is that being home for the holidays can breathe new life into this team in their pursuit for promotion as they log a lot of miles while on the road, travelling 806 miles to Sunderland and back last weekend, which could explain their slow start in that match.
This team enjoy good stretches of possession in most of their games, but their ball movement needs work as they have had their share of turnovers in their build-up play from the back, which has cost them points recently.
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Two has been the magic number for Charlton Athletic, who are starting to climb up the standings after a difficult beginning to this domestic campaign.
Although they have not always looked spectacular, all that matters at the end of 90 minutes is the result, and since Johnnie Jackson became the caretaker manager back in October, this team have been on the right side of the scoreline more often than not.
A run of nine wins and only two defeats in their last 13 matches in all competitions earned Jackson the role on a permanent basis this week.
Their last three victories have come by a score of 2-0, though they were rather fortunate to achieve that outcome last weekend when Cambridge United carried the play but could not bury their chances.
The most notable improvement for Charlton since their former midfielder/left-back took over the team from the departed Nigel Adkins has been their defensive work, posting eight clean sheets in all competitions under Jackson, including a 2-0 home win versus this same Plymouth Argyle side in November.
This team have fought hard to get their season back on track, and while they indeed have not dominated a lot of their recent games, the players have made a much more concerted effort to come back and defend, which has them currently just a point behind Accrington Stanley, who are in the top half of the table.
Not only are Charlton winning on a more frequent basis, but they are generating points against some of the top sides in the league at the moment, coming back to draw with leaders Rotherham United in early November while also defeating Sunderland in Jackson's first game in charge.
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Team News
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Plymouth centre-back Dan Scarr scored his second goal of the campaign in a losing effort versus Sunderland last weekend following a nice pass from midfielder Jordan Houghton.
Their leading goalscorer Ryan Hardie, who is tied for fourth in League One goals alongside Will Keane, Scott Twine and Marcus Harness with nine so far, has not found the back of the net since his side's 3-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday in an FA Cup first round replay in mid-November.
Brendan Galloway is the only injury concern for this team coming into this weekend as the defender from Zimbabwe continues to recover from a knee injury sustained in late November.
Jake Forster-Caskey is still suffering the effects of a cruciate ligament injury and is unlikely to see the field this weekend for Charlton.
Conor Washington notched a brace in their victory last week over Cambridge, putting him into a tie for the team lead with Jayden Stockley, who scored the winner in their previous match, which ended in a 2-0 victory versus Ipswich, while Washington and Ben Purrington had the only goals in their win over Plymouth last month.
A big reason for the Red Robins turnaround of late has been the play of goalkeeper Craig MacGillivray, who was splendid last weekend, stopping all four shots fired at him as he, and their reserve keepers Stephen Henderson and Nathan Harness, have only conceded one goal combined in the Addicks previous four matches played.
Plymouth Argyle possible starting lineup:
M. Cooper; Gillesphey, Scarr, Wilson; Jephcott, Mayor, Houghton, G. Cooper, Edwards; Hardie, Garrick
Charlton Athletic possible starting lineup:
MacGillivray; Clare, Pearce, Famewo; Dobson; Morgan, Watson, Gilbey, Lee; Stockley, Washington
We say: Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Charlton Athletic
The visitors have got a lot of fortunate bounces in recent matches but have not been at their best on the road this season, with their only significant victory coming at Sunderland, while their other positive away outcomes were versus weaker opponents.
Even though the results have not been there as often as they would have liked lately, the Pilgrims seem to be close to turning the corner, and we expect them to have a little more quality than their opponents on Saturday.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 43.27%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
