Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Linfield win with a probability of 66.14%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 14.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Linfield win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.04%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.1%), while for a Carrick Rangers win it was 1-0 (4.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Linfield would win this match.