Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carrick Rangers win with a probability of 57.28%. A win for Glenavon had a probability of 22.24% and a draw had a probability of 20.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carrick Rangers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.76%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Glenavon win was 0-1 (5.31%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.