Newcastle Jets square off against Perth Glory on Saturday looking for the win which may move the club off the bottom of the A-League standings.
While Glory's strong end to the campaign has recently weakened, the visitors can still earn seventh spot with a victory and if other results go their way.
Match preview
© Reuters
Throughout May, everyone associated with Perth Glory were beginning to dream of an unlikely top-six spot after four wins in quick succession.
However, Richard Garcia's side, who have spent much of the campaign in the bottom three, can now finish no higher than seventh after three fixtures without success.
Garcia will have mixed feelings with regards to how his squad could shape up ahead of next season, but he will first want to finish ahead of Wellington Phoenix and Western Sydney Wanderers.
Having not prevailed away from home since the start of February, the odds are not necessarily in their favour as they bid to end the campaign on a high note.
Glory have scored in all but one of their last 11 fixtures, but they face a team in the Jets who have just kept their first clean sheet in 15 attempts.
While their defensive record of 36 goals conceded in 24 matches is respectable for a team in their position, Craig Deans will be relieved that they have finally been rewarded for their recent improvements.
After two narrow defeats, the Jets went two goals ahead against Central Coast Mariners before seeing out the final 57 minutes.
With Melbourne Victory facing champions Melbourne City in their last match, Deans and his squad are aware that a point could move them above their nearest rivals.
Roy O'Donovan scored his seventh strike of the campaign against the Mariners, extending his recent tally to four in six outings.
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Team News
Deans is expected to keep changes down to a minimum, particularly in defence and midfield given their performance last time out.
The one alteration could come in the centre of the pitch with Ali Abbas taking the place of John Koutroumbis.
Brandon Wilson may be restored to the Glory midfield after netting as a substitute versus Brisbane Roar.
Carlo Armiento is also in line for a recall in attack, most likely at the expense of Andy Keogh.
Newcastle Jets possible starting lineup:
Duncan; Jackson, Boogaard, Topor-Stanley; Hoffman, Abbas, O'Doherty, Mauragis; O'Donovan, Thurgate, Goodwin
Perth Glory possible starting lineup:
Reddy; Geria, Aspropotamitis, Lachman, Ota; Chianese, Wilson, Timmins, Castro; Fornaroli, Armiento
We say: Newcastle Jets 1-2 Perth Glory
On the back of their shock win last time out, the Jets will go all out for three points at the weekend. However, we also expect Glory to make improvements, and that could prove enough for the visitors to edge this contest by the odd goal in three.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 36.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
