Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 42.1%. A win for Switzerland had a probability of 29.77% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Switzerland win was 1-0 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Spain in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Spain.