/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fspalog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Ficelog.png)
-
Alvaro Morata
37'
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Alvaro Morata
40'
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Yeremi Pino
47'
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Pablo Sarabia
61'
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Pablo Sarabia
73'
Spain vs Iceland - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F24%2Fluis-enrique.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F42%2Fdani-olmo.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 63.18%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 14.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
Result
Spain
63.18%
Draw
22.47%
Iceland
14.34%
Both Teams to Score:
42.42%
Goals
Over 2.5
45.65%
Under 2.5
54.34%
Over 3.5
24.27%
Under 3.5
75.72%
Spain Goals
Over 0.5
83.3%
Under 0.5
16.7%
Over 1.5
53.4%
Under 1.5
46.59%
Iceland Goals
Over 0.5
50.93%
Under 0.5
49.07%
Over 1.5
15.99%
Under 1.5
84%
Score analysis
Spain
63.17%
Draw
22.47%
Iceland
14.34%
Spain
1-0
@
14.66%
2-0 @ 13.12%
2-1 @ 9.34%
3-0 @ 7.83%
3-1 @ 5.57%
4-0 @ 3.5%
4-1 @ 2.49%
3-2 @ 1.98%
5-0 @ 1.25%
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 63.17%
2-0 @ 13.12%
2-1 @ 9.34%
3-0 @ 7.83%
3-1 @ 5.57%
4-0 @ 3.5%
4-1 @ 2.49%
3-2 @ 1.98%
5-0 @ 1.25%
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 63.17%
Draw
1-1
@
10.44%
0-0 @ 8.2%
2-2 @ 3.33%
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 22.47%
0-0 @ 8.2%
2-2 @ 3.33%
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 22.47%
Iceland
0-1
@
5.83%
1-2 @ 3.72%
0-2 @ 2.08%
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 14.34%
1-2 @ 3.72%
0-2 @ 2.08%
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 14.34%