Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Israel win with a probability of 49.44%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Israel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Iceland win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.