Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Estonia win was 0-1 (9.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cyprus would win this match.