Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 64.08%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Chesterfield had a probability of 15.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Chesterfield win it was 0-1 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Wrexham in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Wrexham.
Result | ||
Wrexham | Draw | Chesterfield |
64.08% ( 2.23) | 20.11% ( -0.55) | 15.8% ( -1.68) |
Both teams to score 53.04% ( -1.83) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.1% ( -0.61) | 41.89% ( 0.6) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.7% ( -0.62) | 64.3% ( 0.61) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.62% ( 0.45) | 12.38% ( -0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.75% ( 0.93) | 38.24% ( -0.94) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.54% ( -2.42) | 39.46% ( 2.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.85% ( -2.32) | 76.15% ( 2.32) |
Score Analysis |
Wrexham | Draw | Chesterfield |
2-0 @ 10.65% ( 0.63) 1-0 @ 10.2% ( 0.44) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.57) 3-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.36) 4-1 @ 3.61% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.17) 4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.17) 5-1 @ 1.51% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.48% Total : 64.07% | 1-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.33) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.12) Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.11% | 0-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.4) 0-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.23) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.21) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.23) Other @ 1.94% Total : 15.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 |
2 | Barnet | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 44 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 42 |
4 | Gateshead | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 38 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 37 |
6 | Rochdale | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 33 |
7 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 32 |
8 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
9 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 31 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 31 |
11 | Halifax TownHalifax | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 31 |
12 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 29 |
13 | Eastleigh | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 28 |
14 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 26 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 34 | 26 | 8 | 25 |
16 | Tamworth | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 25 |
17 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 22 |
18 | Woking | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 21 |
19 | Fylde | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 21 |
20 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 20 |
21 | Braintree TownBraintree | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 20 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 19 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 21 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 46 | -31 | 9 |
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