Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southport win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Gloucester City had a probability of 31.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southport win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Gloucester City win was 0-1 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southport would win this match.