Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scunthorpe United win with a probability of 62.9%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Hereford United had a probability of 15.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Scunthorpe United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.13%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Hereford United win it was 0-1 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Scunthorpe United would win this match.