Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 47.77%. A win for Southport had a probability of 26.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Southport win was 0-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hereford United would win this match.