Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Darlington win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 36.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Darlington win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.13%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Darlington would win this match.