Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 42.99%. A win for Boston United had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Boston United win was 1-0 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.