Philadelphia Union will look to consolidate their position in the top seven when they take on fellow playoff-chasing CF Montreal at the Saputo Stadium on Saturday evening.
Both sides currently hold a position inside the playoff spots, yet Philadelphia enter the fixture in the superior position of third, whilst Montreal sit in seventh, one point ahead of Atlanta United in eighth.
Match preview
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Looking to qualify for their fourth consecutive playoffs, Philadelphia look set to finish inside the top seven and they may have even been celebrating an Eastern Conference title, had their form been more consistent.
Seven defeats this season have prevented the Union from competing with conference leaders New England Revolution, yet there is still plenty of promise left in the season for Jim Curtin's side.
A two-time winner of the Supporters' Shield, once as a player with Chicago Fire in 2004 and then as a manager with the Union last season, Curtin will be targeting the club's maiden Major League Soccer Cup title.
Philadelphia have never made it past the quarter-finals of the MLS Cup and had been left disappointed with their round-of-16 defeat to Portland Timbers last season.
They had won the Supporters' Shield by three points over runners-up Toronto FC – a result that earned them a spot in the 2021 CONCACAF Champions League, where the U made it to the semi-finals.
Defeat across two legs without scoring a goal to Mexican side Club America saw Philadelphia eliminated at the last-four stage and should they have hopes of returning to North America's premier club competition, they will need to win the MLS Cup.
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Unlike their opponents, Montreal's mid-table finish last season left the Canadian club without continental football for a second consecutive campaign, yet a return to the Champions League could be on the cards.
Unable to qualify through their MLS performance, due to competing in the Canadian Championship, Montreal will have the opportunity to progress to the final of that competition when they take on Forge FC in the semi-final.
Likely to progress to the final, Montreal could meet fellow MLS club Toronto, who themselves have struggled for form this season.
Whilst not as bad as the club second-bottom of the Eastern Conference, Montreal will be disappointed with their performances this year, yet a playoff spot would represent a positive first season in charge for Wilfried Nancy.
The French-born coach was handed the managerial reins following Thierry Henry's departure early this year and his side will be looking for their first win against Philadelphia since June 2019 this weekend.
A run of four matches without a victory against their opponents does not bode well for Montreal and given the Union's advantageous league position, it would not be surprising to see their frustrating run extend on Saturday.
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Team News
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Having missed the majority of Montreal's summer fixtures through injury, Romell Quioto has returned to the side in fine form, netting six goals in his last seven MLS fixtures, including a brace in their most recent victory over Atlanta last weekend.
The Honduran will no doubt lead the line once more for the Canadian outfit and should be joined in attack by promising midfielder Dorde Mihailovic, who has featured in each of Montreal's MLS fixtures this season, racking up a healthy 11 assists.
Despite their strong attacking returns in recent weeks, Montreal are likely to be without a number of players through injury, including Jean-Aniel Assi (muscle), Ahmed Hamdi (groin), Mason Toye (shoulder), Robert Orri Thorkelsson (groin) and Aljaz Struna (calf).
That is not ideal for Nancy and co. as they look to put an end to their disappointing run against Philadelphia, who in contrast to their opponents should have close to a full squad to pick from.
Cory Burke (ankle) and Ilsinho (hamstring) are both doubts for the fixture, yet Curtin will be able to call upon the majority of his team in their search to consolidate a top-three finish.
Do not be surprised to see Kacper Przybylko find the net once more this weekend, as the German-born former Polish youth international has scored 15 goals across all competitions this season, including five during Philadelphia's run to the Champions League semi-final.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Waterman, Camacho, Miller; Brault-Guillard, Piette, Wanyama, Choiniere; Torres, Mihailovic, Quioto
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Freese; Glesnes, Elliot, Findlay; Harriel, Flach, McGlynn, Bedoya; Aaronson, Santos, Przybylko
We say: CF Montreal 2-1 Philadelphia Union
Two sides who potentially will end the season disappointed that they could have managed to achieve more, whilst in the case of Montreal, finishing the campaign with silverware.
Likely to be considered a more important game for Montreal, given their slender advantage over sides below them, expect the Canadian club to play with a sense of real purpose.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
