Montpellier HSC will attempt to end a five-game winless run in Ligue 1 when they welcome Monaco to the Stade de la Mosson on Friday evening.
In contrast, the visitors are searching for their third win on the trot following dominant victories over Lorient and Angers.
Match preview
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As the only team in the top 16 unable to boast even one win from their last five matches in Ligue 1, Montpellier's European dream is slowly slipping away.
Michel Der Zakarian's men opened 2021 with a dismal 3-1 defeat at Marseille before taking on a Nantes outfit starting to look more resilient under Raymond Domenech.
La Paillade once again could not get over the line as they played out a 1-1 draw with the relegation-threatened Canaris, as Ambroise Oyongo's early opener was cancelled out by Imran Louza's second-half equaliser on Saturday.
That result not only stretched Montpellier's winless streak on their own turf to four matches, but the hosts have now dropped to eighth in the table and find themselves five points adrift of the European places.
With the prolific Andy Delort leading the line for Montpellier, their tally of 31 goals is the highest of any team outside of the top four, and Der Zakarian will need the eight-goal forward to be firing on all cylinders if his side are to have any chance of ending their winless run and - at least temporarily - leapfrogging Angers in the table.
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In contrast, the unpredictable Monaco have started the New Year as they mean to go on with dominant victories over Lorient and Angers, scoring eight goals and conceding just twice.
Last weekend's resounding 3-0 win over Les Scoistes saw Guillermo Maripan, Kevin Volland and Stevan Jovetic all find the back of the net to propel Monaco up to fourth in the table - level on points with Rennes, who played out a 2-2 draw with Lyon last time out.
Niko Kovac has now witnessed his team take 10 points from their last four matches and they will be feeling confident about their chances of maintaining their perfect start to 2021 here, although third-placed Lille - who boast 39 points compared to Monaco's 33 - cannot be caught by Les Monegasques just yet.
While Montpellier's Delort and Gaetan Laborde have proven effective together with 14 goals between them this term, Monaco pairing Volland and Wissam Ben Yedder boast a combined total of 16 strikes, and the former will be aiming to make the net ripple for the fifth match in a row this weekend.
The two sides played out a 1-1 draw in their first meeting of the season back in October, but Montpellier can only boast a solitary win from their last 21 attempts against Monaco on home soil.
Montpellier HSC Ligue 1 form: WLDLLD
Monaco Ligue 1 form: LLWDWW
Team News
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Der Zakarian opted for a five-man defence against Nantes which did not pay dividends, with Hilton and Nicolas Cozza both at risk of losing their place to the returning Pedro Mendes.
Stephy Mavididi and Teji Savanier should return to full training from COVID-19 infection later this week, but it seems unlikely that the duo will be risked from the first whistle.
Florent Mollet will also be assessed after being forced off early at the weekend, while Junior Sambia and Mihailo Ristic could be in line for recalls if Der Zakarian tweaks his formation.
Monaco have much less to worry about on the injury front, but Florentino Luis is still out after contracting coronavirus last week.
Cesc Fabregas is also yet to return from his calf problem, but Kovac is not expected to make many alterations to his side from last weekend's vital win.
However, the fit-again Aleksandr Golovin is pushing for a start over Gelson Martins, while Maripan should keep Axel Disasi out of the team once more following his goal against Angers.
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Sambia, Mendes, Congre, Oyongo; Souquet, Chotard, Ferri, Ristic; Laborde, Delort
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Lecomte; Sidibe, Maripan, Badiashile, Henrique; Diop, Tchouameni, Fofana, Golovin; Ben Yedder, Volland
We say: Montpellier HSC 1-2 Monaco
Montpellier just cannot produce the goods on their own patch at the moment, but the hosts could be boosted by the potential returns of Mavididi and Savanier for this tie. However, Monaco know what a victory here could do for their European prospects, and we are backing Kovac's men to maintain their 100% record in 2021 with a slender victory at the Stade de la Mosson.
Top betting tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 30.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
