Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 32.83% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Philadelphia Union in this match.