Minnesota United will look to turn their Major League Soccer season around when they host the Vancouver Whitecaps on Wednesday at Allianz Field.
The Loons have started the season losing their first four matches, while the Whitecaps earned their second victory of the year, beating Montreal 2-0 last Saturday.
Match preview
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Losing their opening four games is not what many expected to see from a Loons side who have finished in the top four of the Western Conference standings over their past two campaigns.
The last time they had a worse beginning to a season was in their inaugural campaign in MLS back in 2017, when they lost three of their opening four fixtures.
Minnesota have never lost at home to the Whitecaps since joining Major League Soccer, and they will hope that trend continues as they look to turn their season around.
Manager Adrian Heath had a decorated career as a player in England, winning the league twice plus an FA Cup.
Still, so far, his coaching record in Major League Soccer has been anything but impressive, compiling 58 losses in four seasons in charge, although they have had a winning record over the past two campaigns.
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After a hard-fought victory in their opening match against the Timbers, Marc Dos Santos saw his side take a step back, squandering a lead late in the game to Toronto FC, then losing to the Colorado Rapids before beating CF Montreal.
The Montreal-born coach has stressed the importance of containing teams in transition, something they have struggled to do consistently early on.
The Caps have done most of their damage off set-pieces, scoring four of their five goals this season off free kicks, corners or from the penalty spot.
Striker Cristian Dajome notched both goals in their victory over Montreal on Saturday, while goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau picked up his second clean sheet.
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Team News
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Minnesota centre-back Bakaye Dibassy and winger Niko Hansen could both miss a fifth straight match with a hamstring problem.
Emmanuel Reynoso led the team in assists last season but has failed to create much in his first four games, while central midfielder Will Trapp is hoping to get his game back to the level it was in 2016, when he was an MLS all-star.
The Whitecaps will be without centre-back Erik Godoy with a calf strain, while Leonard Owusu and Tosaint Ricketts are questionable with muscle injuries.
Defender Ali Adnan is still trying to get his visa situation sorted out, as the Whitecaps have missed his offensive presence so far this season after leading the team in assists in 2020.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Metanire, Boxall, Raitala, Gasper; Alonso, Trapp; Lod, Reynoso, Finlay; Agudelo
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Gaspar, Veselinovic, Rose, Gutierrez; Dajome, Bikel, Teibert, Caicedo; Alexandre, Cavallini
We say: Minnesota United 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
Minnesota have never lost to the Whitecaps at home in the MLS regular season, holding them scoreless in their past two trips to Allianz Field.
As bad as Minnesota have been in their opening four games, they have a team that is capable of turning things around and should be able to catch the Whitecaps on the counter, which is one area Marc Dos Santos and his team are still looking to get right.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 68.05%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 12.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.02%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 0-1 (4.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
