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Maritimo
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20
Feb 22, 2021 at 7pm UK
Estadio dos Barreiros
Porto

Maritimo
1 - 2
Porto

Andrade (18')
Hermes (32'), Joel (69'), Pelagio (71'), Jean (86'), Abedzadeh (87'), Junior (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Uribe (14'), Otavio (90+3' pen.)
Manafa (32'), Marchesin (83')

Preview: Maritimo vs. Porto - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Maritimo and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Porto turn their attention back to the league on Monday evening when they travel away to Maritimo, who sit in the bottom three of the Primeira Liga table.

Sergio Conceicao's side recorded an impressive Champions League win over Juventus on Wednesday, while Maritimo suffered a fifth consecutive league loss at the hands of Tondela last time out.


Match preview

Porto head coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on November 3, 2020© Reuters

Maritimo come into this game in a tough patch of form, having lost their last five league matches, most recently falling to a 2-1 defeat away at Tondela.

Diederrick Joel Tagueu equalised for Os Verde-Rubros on the stroke of half time following a Jhon Murillo goal for the hosts, before Mario Gonzalez scored early in the second half to seal all three points for Tondela.

That followed another 2-1 defeat for Milton Mendes's men, when they were defeated by eighth-placed Santa Clara, with Tagueu giving his side the lead from the penalty spot, before goals in the final 15 minutes from Crysan and Carlos flipped the game on its head.

Their losing run has seen Maritimo fall into the Primeira Liga's bottom three, currently occupying the relegation playoff place.

That has been down to struggles in both attack and defence, with only four sides scoring fewer than their 18 goals, while four teams have conceded more than the 28 that Mendes's side have shipped this season.

Although the Brazilian will be worried by that poor combination, his side are by no means isolated at the bottom of the division, as they sit level on points with Farense in 15th spot.

That will be encouraging for Os Verde-Rubros, as they could quickly lift themselves out of the bottom three if they can turn around their poor form, however this game presents a very tough challenge as they welcome a Porto side who sit second in the division.

Porto's Antonio Martinez celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates in January 2021© Reuters

Porto secured an impressive victory last time out, beating Juventus 2-1 in the first leg of their Champions League round-of-16 tie.

Mehdi Taremi put the Dragoes ahead after two minutes and his strike partner Moussa Marega doubled their lead soon after half time, before Federico Chiesa salvaged an away goal for the Italian outfit, halving the deficit going into the second leg.

However, they have faltered in the league recently, drawing their last three matches in the top flight.

Most recently, Conceicao's side rescued a point when they came from 2-0 down to draw away at strugglers Boavista, thanks to a Taremi goal and a late Sergio Oliveira penalty.

Before that, the Primeira Liga defending champions led Braga 2-0 through Oliveira and Taremi, before the third-placed side snatched a point late on courtesy of a Fransergio strike and a 94th-minute Nicolas Gaitan equaliser.

Conceicao's men currently boast the best attack in the Primeira Liga, with no side in the division matching the 43 goals they have recorded this season.

However, as a result of their three consecutive draws, the Dragoes have fallen 10 points behind league leaders Sporting Lisbon, and Conceicao will be desperate to get back to winning ways here to put the pressure back on the side from the capital, who are cruising towards the title that Porto won last season.

Maritimo Primeira Liga form: WLLLLL
Maritimo form (all competitions): LLLLLL

Porto Primeira Liga form: DWWDDD
Porto form (all competitions): WDDDDW


Team News

Porto players celebrate scoring against Marseille in the Champions League on November 3, 2020© Reuters

Maritimo will be without their top scorer Rodrigo Pinho, who remains out with an ankle injury having scored seven Primeira Liga goals this campaign, including a brace against Porto earlier this season.

In his absence, Os Verde-Rubros have struggled to find goals, however Diederrick Joel Tagueu comes into this game having found the net in their last two matches, giving him some confidence.

Porto should have a full squad to pick from, other than centre-back Ivan Marcano, who remains out with a ligament injury.

Moussa Marega and Mehdi Taremi should lead the line for the Dragoes again in this tie, with the pair having a combined 15 goals and 10 assists in Primeira Liga action this campaign.

Meanwhile, Chancel Mbemba and Pepe will partner up at the heart of Conceicao's defence, after the pair impressed again in the victory over Juventus on Wednesday.

Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Secco; Winck, Karo, Junior, Africo, Hermes; Macedo, Jean, Bambock; Tagueu, Guitane

Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Manafa, Mbemba, Pepe, Sanusi; Corona, Uribe, Oliveira, Diaz; Marega, Taremi


SM words green background

We say: Maritimo 0-3 Porto

Considering the poor recent form of Maritimo, we see this being a fairly routine win for the visitors, despite their recent struggles in the league.

Porto's collection of attacking talent should have more than enough to break down a Maritimo defence that has struggled to keep teams out, and we expect them to record several goals in this game, cruising to a big victory.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:436026:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9651:
Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 68.53%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 11.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.56%) and 0-3 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a Maritimo win it was 1-0 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Maritimo vs Porto

Maritimo
22.7%
Draw
15.9%
Porto
61.4%
44
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon14120243103336
2Benfica1210113172431
3Porto1310123192231
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara139041612427
5Braga137332213924
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes136341612421
7MoreirenseMoreirense146261919020
8FamalicaoFamalicao134631412218
9Gil Vicente144461724-716
10Rio AveRio Ave134361323-1015
11Casa Pia133551117-614
12Estoril PraiaEstoril133551219-714
13Nacional13337817-912
14Estrela Amadora133371222-1012
15BoavistaBoavista142571019-911
16AVS132561021-1111
17SC FarenseFarense14239720-139
18AroucaArouca13229723-168


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