Fourth-tier outfit Mancha Real welcome La Liga stalwarts Athletic Bilbao to the Estadio Polideportivo La Juventud on Thursday evening, with a place in the last 16 of the Copa del Rey up for grabs.
The hosts are struggling in the relegation zone of the Segunda Division RFEF, whilst the visitors are solidly sat in midtable once again.
Match preview
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Mancha Real achieved promotion from the Tercera Division last year but counterintuitively remained in the fourth-tier of Spanish football as the league system realigned.
Whether or not the quality of the division in which they find themselves has been a step up, Los Verdes have certainly struggled this campaign.
Consecutive losses at home to Hercules and then away at Real Murcia have seen them drop to 14th and thus the highest of five relegation spots, although they are also just seven points behind the promotion spots in a tight division.
Pedro Bolanos's side have been punching well above their weight in the Copa del Rey, however, first beating third-tier Inter de Madrid and then shocking La Liga's Granada in the second round, with Jose Enrique scoring the only goal of the game.
They will now hope for another cup upset against a side just three places higher than Granada in the top tier.
Athletic Bilbao have struggled for consistency this season, as shown by their last four results, which read loss, win, loss, win.
That most recent win came away at Osasuna, where, after having fallen behind in the 10th minute, an Oihan Sancet hat-trick turned the match around.
Despite sitting in a mediocre 10th position - certainly compared to their run of fourth, seventh, fifth and seventh-placed finishes in four straight seasons between 2013 and 2017 - they are just five points behind the top four.
Marcelino's side are certainly capable of putting together a run of positive results and will hope to move up the table in the coming weeks, whilst also progressing in the cup against a side 66 places below them in the football ladder.
Bilbao - along with Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid - only joined the tournament in the round of 32, as participants of the Supercopa de Espana.
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Team News
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Bolanos may well choose to stick with the side that shocked Granada, which would see Enrique leading the Mancha Real line in a 4-2-3-1 setup.
Bilbao forward Asier Villalibre is still out with a hamstring injury, whilst Dani Vivian and Yuri Berchiche and Peru Nolaskoain are also expected to miss the match.
Unai Nunez, Inigo Lekue, Oier Zarraga, Jokin Ezkieta and Raul Garcia have all tested positive for COVID-19, which is what allowed hat-trick scorer Sancet into the starting XI.
The 21-year-old will surely retain his starting spot after that spectacular performance against Osasuna.
Mancha Real possible starting lineup:
Lopez Huete; Perez Emo, Cabello Marin, Del Amo Castellano, Nando; Quesada, Juanma; Campuzano, Arroyo, Corral; Enrique
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; De Marcos, Alvarez, Martinez, Balenziaga; N. Williams, Vencedor, D. Garcia, Muniain; I. Williams, Sancet
We say: Mancha Real 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Whilst the hosts' cup run has been very impressive, it looks likely to come to an end on Thursday. They will put up a fight, and also have home advantage, but the extra quality in Les Leones' squad will surely prove to be too much for them.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 68.31%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Mancha Real had a probability of 11.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.42%) and 0-3 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Mancha Real win it was 1-0 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
