Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 52.28%. A win for Malmo had a probability of 26.75% and a draw had a probability of 20.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Malmo win was 2-1 (6.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.