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Lokomotiv Moscow
Europa League | Group Stage
Sep 16, 2021 at 5.45pm UK
RZD Arena
Marseille

Lokomotiv
1 - 1
Marseille

Anjorin (89')
Beka Beka (22'), Tiknizyan (34')
Tiknizyan (58')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Under (59' pen.)
Kamara (37'), Rongier (62')

Preview: Lokomotiv Moscow vs. Marseille - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Lokomotiv Moscow and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Marseille's return to the European stage begins on Thursday in Europa League Group E, where Lokomotiv Moscow are waiting to welcome Les Olympiens to the RZD Arena.

Both teams claimed 2-0 domestic wins at the weekend ahead of this encounter, with the hosts beating Krylya Sovetov while Marseille came up trumps at Monaco.


Match preview

Current Lokomotiv Moscow manager Marko Nikolic in charge of Vidi in October 2018© Reuters

Lokomotiv's three-year stint in the Champions League has come to an abrupt end, with last year's third-placed finish in the Russian Premier Liga forcing them to settle for a spot in Europe's secondary competition this time around.

Marko Nikolic's side have not plied their trade in the Europa League since the 2017-18 season - where Atletico Madrid sent them packing 8-1 on aggregate in the last 16 - and any hopes of a top-two finish are far from guaranteed with Marseille, Lazio and Galatasaray also occupying spots in Group E.

Despite going down 3-0 to Zenit St Petersburg in the Super Cup back in July, Lokomotiv have since made an unbeaten start to the top-flight season with four wins and three draws from seven games, the most recent of which saw them sink Krylya 2-0 at the weekend.

It took a double from substitute Francois Kamano to propel Lokomotiv to victory on the day, but that victory extended the hosts' unbeaten competitive run on home soil to 12 matches ahead of the visit of Marseille, and they have only failed to score in one of those games.

Nikolic's side had failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their previous six league fixtures before the visit of Krylya, though, which does not spell optimism before the visit of a Marseille side who have been transformed into a different beast under Jorge Sampaoli.

Marseille head coach Jorge Sampaoli pictured on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Having found the back of the net eight times in three matches with Montpellier HSC, Bordeaux and Saint-Etienne, Marseille travelled to the Stade Louis II to face an under-performing Monaco side on Saturday, and they passed that test with flying colours.

Even in the absences of Dimitri Payet and Arkadiusz Milik, Sampaoli's side were able to rely on the up-and-coming Seny Dieng to get them over the line, as the 21-year-old raced through in the first half to score the opener before a delightful turn and finish on the hour mark in a 2-0 success for Marseille.

While Paris Saint-Germain are expected to run away with the Ligue 1 crown, Marseille certainly have the look of a side capable of pushing their Classique rivals all the way, while also seeking an immediate return to the Champions League following last season's disappointment.

Andre Villas-Boas's Marseille failed to make it out of their Champions League group last year, but they have recent experience of nearly going all the way in the Europa League, reaching the 2017-18 final before being downed 3-0 by Atletico Madrid.

Thursday's encounter will mark the first time that Lokomotiv and Marseille have locked horns in any competition, and Les Olympiens have not faced off against Russian opposition away from home since easing to a 3-0 win over Spartak Moscow in the 2010-11 Champions League.

Lokomotiv Moscow form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W

Marseille form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Marseille's Ahmadou Bamba Dieng celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Lokomotiv's key creative asset Anton Miranchuk will be forced to miss this encounter owing to a tendon issue, while Ze Luis has been withdrawn from the hosts' competitive group due to injury.

Aleksandr Silyanov is also struggling with a muscular issue but is not on the squad list anyway, while Dmitri Barinov returns from a domestic ban and should earn a start in the middle.

Kamano is sure to earn a recall to the first XI following his weekend heroics, with Maksim Petrov's spot most at risk for the visit of Marseille.

The visitors would welcome Payet back to the fold after his suspension was served at the weekend, but the attacker is nursing a thigh problem, while Alvaro Gonzalez is available despite serving a domestic ban for his involvement in the ugly scenes against Nice.

With Milik not expected to recover from a knee injury just yet, the stage is set for Dieng to impress once again, but Sampaoli's extensive options in the final third could see the Marseille boss tempted into a couple of changes.

Gerson and Konrad de la Fuente are among the new arrivals hoping to force their way back into the team, but deadline-day signing Amine Harit will not want to be dropped after claiming an assist on his debut against Monaco.

Lokomotiv Moscow possible starting lineup:
Guilherme; Zhivoglyadov, Jedvaj, Magkeev, Rybus; Zhemaletdinov, Barinov, Kulikov, Kamano; Smolov, Lisakovich

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Saliba, Balerdi, Peres; Lirola, Kamara, Guendouzi, De la Fuente; Under, Harit; Dieng


SM words green background

We say: Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 Marseille

Marseille would normally be expected to struggle for goals without Payet and Milik leading the charge, but Sampaoli's squad depth in midfield and attack is truly enviable, even if their defence is not always watertight.

With Lokomotiv also enjoying an unbeaten start to their league season, this is sure to be a hotly-contested affair, but we expect Marseille's abundance of talent in the final third to propel them to victory.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 41.92%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.27%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Lokomotiv vs Marseille

Lokomotiv Moscow
19.2%
Draw
16.3%
Marseille
64.5%
203
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Group A

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QWest Ham650115
QFreiburg640212
3Olympiacos62137
4Backa Topola60151

Group B

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QBrighton641113
QMarseille632111
3Ajax61235
4AEK Athens61144

Group C

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3Betis63039
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Group D

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Group F

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Group G

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Group H

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3Molde62137
4Hacken60060


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