Lazio will aim to keep the pressure on Europa League Group E leaders Galatasaray when they travel to Lokomotiv Moscow on Thursday night.
Maurizio Sarri's men sit second in the section with five points to their name, while their winless Russian hosts sit rock bottom of the rankings.
Match preview
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Lokomotiv Moscow managed to break Galatasaray's defensive resistance on matchday four through Francois Kamano, but the Russian outfit were unable to get one over the group leaders and saw their winless run continue with a point in a 1-1 stalemate.
Kamano's equaliser was the first goal that Galatasaray had conceded in the group stage, but the Turkish side had already struck through Sofiane Feghouli to dash Lokomotiv's slim hopes of finishing top and securing an automatic route to the last 32.
Markus Gisdol's side have taken just two points from a possible 12 so far and sit fourth in the standings - two adrift of Marseille and three behind Lazio - so a memorable success over their Italian counterparts would certainly throw the cat among the pigeons.
Not one side in Group E has become renowned for their goalscoring exploits in Europe, with Lokomotiv sitting on just two strikes from 360 minutes of football, but top scorers Lazio only have four to their name in the section.
Lokomotiv head into this contest on the back of a disappointing league defeat to Akhmat Grozny, though, and they are without a clean sheet in nine games in all competitions before Lazio seek to prolong their continental misery.
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Having struggled to assert their dominance in Group E, Lazio's hopes of an expected first-placed finish are hanging by a thread, and Maurizio Sarri's side were forced to settle for a point against draw specialists Marseille on matchday four.
Felipe Anderson and Ciro Immobile cancelled out Arkadiusz Milik's penalty to put Lazio two goals to the good, but the ever-reliable Dimitri Payet restored parity for Marseille in the 82nd minute to dent a serious blow to the Biancocelesti's knockout hopes.
Lazio are three points behind group leaders Galatasaray in the only knockout spot - with their second-placed standing only good enough for the preliminary knockout round - so they will be hoping for Marseille to do them a favour against the Turkish side this week.
Sarri also witnessed his crop suffer a lowly league defeat at the weekend as Juventus ran out 2-0 winners in Saturday's Serie A battle thanks to a pair of Leonardo Bonucci penalties, which was somewhat expected with no Immobile leading the line.
Lazio eased to a 2-0 win over Lokomotiv Moscow when the sides met back in September, though, as Toma Basic and Patric put the tie to bed before the half-time whistle blew at the Stadio Olimpico.
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Team News
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Lokomotiv have been dealt a major injury blow with first-choice goalkeeper Guilherme, who is suffering from a tendon issue in his foot and will not be available here - Andrey Savin should therefore start as the last line of defence.
Guilherme is joined on the sidelines by Stanislav Magkeev, Anton Miranchuk and Chelsea loanee Tino Anjorin, while another creative hub in Rifat Zhemaletdinov remains doubtful with a shin bruise.
Murilo Cerqueira saw red at the weekend but is fine to take his place in the backline here, where Dmitri Barinov ought to return after sitting out the 2-1 defeat through suspension.
As for Lazio, star man Immobile is expected to be in the squad as his calf issue heals up, but it remains to be seen if Sarri will risk him from the first whistle as the striker fears a relapse.
Pedro led the line against Juventus in Immobile's absence, but Vedat Muriqi will certainly want to come into contention for a start this time, while Adam Marusic - reportedly set to sign a new contract until 2025 - may not be ready to return from COVID-19 infection yet.
Basic will hope that his previous exploits against Lokomotiv will see him return to the first XI in place of Danilo Cataldi, and Mattia Zaccagni may drop out if Muriqi spearheads the attack.
Lokomotiv Moscow possible starting lineup:
Savin; Zhivoglyadov, Pablo, Barinov, Rybus; Beka Beka, Maradishvili; Kerk, Petrov, Kamano; Lisakovich
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Lazzari, Felipe, Acerbi, Hysaj; Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto; Pedro, Muriqi, Anderson
We say: Lokomotiv Moscow 0-1 Lazio
With no fewer than three creative midfielders absent for Lokomotiv, their chances of adding to a paltry two strikes in the Europa League are certainly slim against Sarri's Lazio.
The visitors will also continue to struggle for attacking inspiration if Immobile is not deemed fit to feature from the start, but Lazio should still nick the odd goal to march to victory here.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 43.41%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
