Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 69%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Valenciennes had a probability of 12.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.59%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.95%), while for a Valenciennes win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Saint-Etienne in this match.