Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.58%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.