Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dordrecht win with a probability of 56.38%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 21.97% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dordrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dordrecht would win this match.