Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 36.35%. A win for Carrarese had a probability of 33.18% and a draw had a probability of 30.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.18%) and 1-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Carrarese win was 1-0 (12.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.