Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 37.3%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 35.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.