Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for Bohemians had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.62%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Bohemians win was 1-0 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derry City would win this match.