Hitting the buffers at home and abroad last week, Scudetto holders Juventus expect to bounce straight back from two straight losses as they host bottom side Crotone on Monday.
Two clubs from opposite ends of the Serie A spectrum will bring to an end the 23rd round in Turin, with the home side strong favourites to overcome recent setbacks and claim maximum points.
Match preview
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After the double disappointment suffered following defeats at both Napoli and Porto in the past week, Juventus return to the Allianz Stadium on Monday with a seemingly ideal opportunity to re-find form and confidence against lowly Crotone.
With the derby between Milan and Inter guaranteed to allow the Bianconeri to shorten their points deficit on at least one of the top two sides, under-fire coach Andrea Pirlo must be intent on getting his side back on track, as they seek to defend their league crown and post a tenth consecutive title success. Top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo has only one goal from his last five Serie A starts will be particularly keen to contribute against one of the few top-flight teams he has never scored against.
Still with a game in hand on the Milan clubs and third-placed Roma, Juventus had kept clean sheets in all five league matches since losing to Inter at San Siro last month and also sealed progress to meet Atalanta in May's Coppa Italia final.
However, they were out-fought by Napoli in a 1-0 defeat at Stadio Diego Maradona last Saturday and subsequently out-thought by Portuguese champions Porto in the Champions League on Wednesday, when Pirlo's men were fortunate to come away with just a 2-1 first-leg deficit.
Despite being overwhelming favourites to resume normal service in the league this Monday, Juventus have developed something of a mental block against Serie A minnows in recent times - perhaps reflective of their lack of clinical ruthlessness since the departure of former manager Max Allegri.
Under Pirlo and his predecessor Maurizio Sarri, Juve have failed to win four of their last seven league matches against newly-promoted sides - including the reverse fixture against Crotone earlier this season, which ended in a 1-1 draw after Federico Chiesa was red-carded on his debut.
Most of those fixtures did take place on the road though, and boasting the best defensive record in the top flight - with only 19 goals conceded, just eight of which were at home - there appears little prospect of their Calabrian visitors pulling off a further surprise this time out.
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Though somehow not yet cut adrift of possible safety come the end of a difficult campaign, stone-last Crotone have accumulated just 12 points in 22 rounds and journey north to Turin reeling from four consecutive defeats - a spell in which Giovanni Stroppa's side have netted only two goals and let in 11.
In stark contrast to their hosts on Monday, the Squali's 52 goals conceded comfortably represents the worst defensive record in the league, with fellow strugglers Parma (43), Benevento (42) and Torino (41) the closest contenders for that dubious 'award'.
The 51st and 52nd goals of that tally were added by out-of-form Sassuolo in their previous Serie A outing - a 2-1 home loss to the Emilian side.
Like fellow promoted clubs Benevento and Spezia, they may lack individual quality in several areas, but Stroppa's men have been stuck in the basement due also to a certain deficit in fortitude. Crotone are one of only two sides in Europe's top five leagues (along with Arminia Bielefeld of the Bundesliga) to have lost each and every league game in which they have trailed this season - 16 out of 16.
Naturally, then, going behind to Juventus this week would almost definitely prove fatal for any dreams - as abstract and hopeful as they might be - of repeating their shock draw with the champions last autumn.
As if to confirm the size of the task ahead of them, Crotone will also be looking for their first away win of 2020-21, as they have so far recorded nine losses and two draws on their travels.
Juventus Serie A form: WLWWWL
Juventus form (all competitions): WWWDLL
Crotone Serie A form: LWLLLL
Team News
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After limping off during the defeat in Portugal in midweek, Giorgio Chiellini joins fellow defensive stalwart Leonardo Bonucci on the sidelines for Juventus, with the pair suffering from calf and thigh injuries respectively.
Andrea Pirlo also has several other selection issues to resolve, though certainly possesses the playing resources to do so, as midfielder Adrien Rabiot is suspended, flying full-back Juan Cuadrado - so integral to Pirlo's preferred style of play - is again absent due to a thigh strain and Arthur is out with a leg injury. Rodrigo Bentancur also came off at Estadio do Dragao but should be fit to start.
Merih Demiral and Matthijs de Ligt will therefore make up the central-defensive duo, while Federico Bernardeschi could come into the starting XI, with Federico Chiesa moving to the left and Weston McKennie covering for Rabiot in the middle. Alternatively, Aaron Ramsey would replace the Frenchman in the side.
Once again, Alvaro Morata will hope to regain his place ahead of Dejan Kulusevski in support of Cristiano Ronaldo, though Paulo Dybala is also nearing a return to fitness and may be involved from the bench.
Crotone winger Salvatore Molina is set to return to the visitors' squad after recovering from a shoulder fracture, but Ahmad Benali (thigh) and Giuseppe Cuomo (hip) are expected to miss out once more.
Media reports suggest that Giovanni Stroppa may switch from his long-standing 3-5-2 setup to a more flexible 4-3-3 on Monday - potentially a bold move in such an onerous game - so Adam Ounas and top scorer Junior Messias would play wide of central striker Samuel Di Carmine in that instance.
Previously the Squali's main man in attack, Nigerian striker Simy may again have to settle for a role as a second-half substitute.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Buffon; Sandro, Demiral, De Ligt, Danilo; Chiesa, Bentancur, McKennie, Bernardeschi; Kulusevski, Ronaldo
Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Djidji, Golemic, Luperto; Pereira, Messias, Zanellato, Vulic, Rispoli; Ounas, Di Carmine
We say: Juventus 3-0 Crotone
A mismatch in virtually every department should ensure that Juventus return to winning ways, as a deep squad ensures their team is not too badly weakened by a number of absences.
Crotone face crucial fixtures with Cagliari and Torino in the coming fortnight - both of which probably fall into the 'must win' category if they are to survive this term. This intimidating encounter with Juventus, then, is a mere shot to nothing for the Calabrian outsiders.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 74.89%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for Crotone had a probability of 10.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 3-1 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a Crotone win it was 1-2 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Juventus would win this match.
