Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albirex Niigata win with a probability of 43.32%. A win for Shonan Bellmare had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Albirex Niigata win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Shonan Bellmare win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Albirex Niigata would win this match.