Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hapoel Jerusalem win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Ashdod had a probability of 28.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hapoel Jerusalem win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Ashdod win was 0-1 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Hapoel Jerusalem in this match.