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Belarusian Premier League | Gameweek 10
May 23, 2020 at 4.30pm UK
FC Minsk Stadium

Isloch
1 - 2
Energetik-BGU

Stephen (27' pen.)
Tsveiba (69'), Kholodinskiy (81')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Yakhshibaev (13' pen.), Yudchits (90+2')
Yakhshibaev (59'), Svirepa (90+1')

Preview: Isloch vs. Energetik-BGU - prediction, form guide, head to head

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Belarusian top-flight clash between Isloch and Energetik-BGU, including predictions, form guide and head-to-head records.

Energetik-BGU make the trip to the FC Minsk Stadium to face Isloch on Saturday afternoon looking to extend their winning streak in the Belarusian top flight to four matches.

However, Isloch know that victory over their in-form opponents will move them level on points with the third-place outfit.


Match preview

Isloch players celebrate in April 2020© Reuters

Failing to make the most of games against teams lower down the standings has resulted in Isloch dropping down to sixth place, eight points adrift of leaders BATE Borisov.

Given the competitive nature of the division, they are also just four points above 12th position, highlighting that they need to bounce back from two defeats in three games as soon as possible.

Succumbing to Dinamo Minsk represented a significant blow to Vitaly Zhukovsky's side, with last week's then-lowly opponents having gone into the game on the back of two setbacks in a row.

With two players, Momo Yansane and Dmitri Komarovskiy, having contributed all but four of their goals this season, Zhukovsky will feel that it is time that they are provided with more assistance in the final third.

Nevertheless, Energetik boss Vladimir Belyavskiy finds himself in a similar situation with Jasurbek Yaxshiboev having contributed half of his team's tally for the campaign.

Three of his six strikes have come from the penalty spot, while the fact that two doubles have been recorded during that run suggests that more help is required.

That said, Belvavskiy will find it difficult to have many complaints with a team which have registered three wins in a row after a run of the same amount of defeats.

The Students now find themselves as challengers for a first-ever top-flight crown, having never finished higher than 12th place in their history.

While Belvavskiy will reiterate that it is still early days, another three points at the weekend will leave Energetik just one point behind pacesetters BATE.

Isloch form: LWWLWL

Energetik-BGU form: LLLWWW


Head To Head

Despite sitting higher in the league standings, Energetik have not recorded a single competitive victory over Isloch in their last five games.

Most notably, Saturday's hosts have recorded three successive victories by one-goal margins, a run which began just 12 months ago.

The other two fixtures, staged in 2015, ended in draws.


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We say: Isloch 1-1 Energetik-BGU

While neither side have recorded a single draw this season, we feel that could change this weekend. Isloch will be motivated to remain in the top half of the table, and that desire could give them an edge against opponents who are under pressure to last the pace in the top three.



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Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Isloch win with a probability of 45.74%. A win for Energetik-BGU had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Isloch win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Energetik-BGU win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.


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