World Cup 2026: Who could replace Iran if they withdraw from the tournament?

The uncertainty surrounding the Asian nation comes with just over 90 days to go until the tournament begins.

There is a genuine possibility that Iran will not compete at the 2026 World Cup. The question that naturally follows is: who would replace the Asian nation in the event of a withdrawal?

Article 6.7 of the World Cup regulations addresses the matter of withdrawals, though it does not establish any clear criteria for selecting a potential replacement.

"If any participating member association withdraws and/or is excluded from the FIFA World Cup 26, FIFA will decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take such measures as it deems necessary. FIFA may decide to replace the relevant participating member association with another association."

Why Iraq could benefit from an Iranian withdrawal

Iraq could prove to be the most likely replacement for Iran in the event of a withdrawal linked to the political conflict involving the United States. It is worth noting that this uncertainty arises with just 92 days remaining before the start of the competition, which gets under way on 11 June and is being co-hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada.

Iran, placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand, have two fixtures scheduled in Los Angeles and one in Seattle. Their opening match is set for 15 June against New Zealand.

One approach FIFA could adopt would be to select a nation still competing in the playoff rounds for the remaining places. New Caledonia, Jamaica, Bolivia and Suriname are involved in the semi-finals, while DR Congo and Iraq have already qualified for the finals.

Beyond belonging to the same continent as Iran, Iraq are the highest-ranked side in the FIFA rankings (58th) among those still competing for the remaining places. They are also finalists in the inter-confederation playoff mini-tournament, scheduled for the end of March.

However, should Iraq secure their place through the play-offs before any decision is made regarding Iran's spot, another nation could end up filling the vacancy.

What options does FIFA have if Iran withdraw?

There are several possibilities depending on how events unfold, particularly if Iraq win and qualify directly through the play-offs.

One option would be for Bolivia or Suriname — one of whom will face Iraq in the play-off final — to qualify as runners-up of the playoff tournament. The United Arab Emirates are the next highest-ranked Asian nation in the FIFA rankings (68th) after Iraq, meaning FIFA could prioritise a team from the same continent and hand them Iran's place.

DR Congo, currently 48th in the FIFA rankings and also a play-off finalist alongside Iraq, could take the spot on the basis that only teams already involved in the playoff process would be eligible. There is also the possibility that Iraq could be confirmed as Iran's replacement before the play-offs even take place, in which case Bolivia and Suriname would likely compete directly for a World Cup berth. Finally, FIFA could decide that Group G simply continues with three teams, without adding any replacement.

What Is Iran's current situation?

Ahmad Donyamali, Iran's Minister of Sport and Youth, made clear that the country intends to withdraw from the tournament following United States military strikes. His statement came after FIFA president Gianni Infantino claimed to have held discussions with Donald Trump to secure the participation of the Iranian team.

"Considering that this corrupt regime has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup," Donyamali told Iranian state television.

Donyamali's statement is not yet definitive, but it represents a strong signal of what may unfold in the coming days. The Football Federation of the Islamic Republic of Iran (FFIRI) and FIFA have yet to issue any official statement on the matter.