The Houston Dynamo will look to remain unbeaten at home in this Major League Soccer campaign when they welcome Sporting Kansas City to BBCA Stadium on Wednesday.
The Dynamo are looking to extend their unbeaten run to three games, while Sporting Kansas City look for their first win away from home this season.
Match preview
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After finishing with the joint-second worst record in MLS in 2020, Tab Ramos has seen his side compete a lot harder in the early stage of 2021, suffering their only defeat by a single goal, while winning 2-1 in their opener, drawing 1-1 to a tough LAFC side and drawing with their Texas rivals by the same score last weekend.
After four regular-season games Houston have depended on their defenders joining in the attack, with Zarek Valentin and Adam Lundqvist creating most of their opportunities so far in the final third.
Getting balanced scoring has been a challenge for Orange Crush in the regular season, scoring only five goals up to this point of the season and their 2020 leading scorer Darwin Quintero still goalless in 2021.
In their previous campaign the Dynamo split the season series against KC with each side winning twice in their four matchups, as Houston won 2-1 at home while the Wizards returned the favour beating Orange Crush at BBVA Stadium by the same score last October.
After four games it appears KC manager Peter Vermes will have to go back to the drawing board when it comes to their defensive midfield game as they have failed to gain more than 50% possession in three of their four matches so far and have conceded in every match.
The off-season retooling could take some time for the veteran coach, whose well-drilled attacking system helped propel them to a first-place finish in the Western Conference in 2020.
This team lost a lot of experience both at the back and upfront with the departure of defender Matt Besler and striker Gerso, so it could take some time for the newcomers to adjust to the Vermes style of play.
The Wizards have struggled to keep the ball out of their net when playing away from home, conceding in all but one game in 2020.
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Team News
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Defenders Sam Junqua and Ethan Bartlow have concussions, which means Tim Parker and Boniek Garcia are likely to feature once again.
Tyler Pasher has made the most out of his second chance in Major League Soccer, with a goal and an assist so far, and he will be eager to show his old club they made a mistake in trading him in 2017.
Kansas City keeper Tim Melia has missed the entire season so far with a chest injury, while Graham Zusi returned from his foot injury last weekend, earning the all-time record of most games played for the club.
Gianluca Busio is hoping to take another step forward in his MLS career with Sporting Kansas City.
At 18 years old, he has played in 49 MLS games thus far and is hoping to take his game to the next level, scoring just once so far in 2021.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Maric; Valentin, Parker, Garcia, Lundqvist; Rodriguez, Vera, Corona; Pasher, Quintero, Picault
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Pulskamp; Martins, Fontas, Zusi, Lindsey; Busio, llie, Walter; Salloi, Russell, Pulido
We say: Houston Dynamo 1-2 Sporting Kansas City
Houston have relied heavily on their full-backs to create scoring opportunities whereas Peter Vermes's side have shown themselves to be a lot more consistent when it comes to creating scoring chances, and they have more players who are capable of turning those opportunities into goals.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 33.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
