The Houston Dynamo have the chance to end their home campaign on a positive note when they host the Colorado Rapids on Sunday from BBVA Stadium.
Orange Crush have dropped two in a row, while the Burgundy Boys fought hard but conceded a late goal, losing 1-0 to the New England Revolution on Wednesday.
Match preview
© Reuters
Sunday is Fan Appreciation Day in Houston, but no one would not blame their fans for not appreciating what this team have done in 2021, as it has been another campaign filled with disappointment.
Mercifully for the Dynamo, the season will soon be over, which in their case could be a good thing as it promises to be an off-season of sweeping changes for the club, with a pledge from majority owner Ted Segal to increase the budget in hopes of turning this once prominent franchise into a winner once again.
In the meantime, Tab Ramos and his players do not have much time to make an impression on their new general manager Pat Onstad and prove to the former Houston goalkeeper that they deserve to remain with the club beyond this season, winning just one of their previous six games.
While they have shown in recent memory that they are capable of an upset, beating the Seattle Sounders 2-1 in the middle of this month, more often than not, their high-pressing system has not worked.
For a group that possess some extremely talented wingers and forward-thinking players, it is a bit of a surprise to see them go through the kind of struggles that they have, including setting a single-season record 16-game winless streak earlier this year.
The Dynamo have been disappointing in the final third all season long, scoring only 36 times, tied for the third-fewest in MLS, with half of their goals coming courtesy of Fafa Picault (11) and Maximiliano Urruti (seven).
© Reuters
With two games remaining, the rest of the regular season will be all about positioning for Colorado, who still have a shot at first place in the Western Conference.
The Rapids showed that they are a top team again this week, making life very difficult for the Supporters' Shield winners in a game that came down to a few chances that the Burgundy Boys were unable to bury.
They trail the Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City by three points with two games remaining, but because they have fewer wins and a vastly inferior goal differential compared to both of those teams, overtaking them at this stage will take some doing.
Colorado are deadly on set-pieces, and it is where they do most of their damage, but in the run of play, they have had a mixture of good and poor performances.
No matter how the regular season ends for them, they will host a playoff game at Dick's Sporting Goods Park, which is a good thing because playing on the road has proven to be difficult for the Burgundy Boys lately, losing three of their last four games outside of the Rockies.
There is a lot of optimism in Colorado at the moment and for a good reason, as Robin Fraser's detail-oriented and player-friendly approach seems to be what this side had been missing, and you would not put it past them to make a long playoff run.
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Marko Maric stopped six of the eight shots that he faced last Sunday versus Austin FC, but all that most people will remember is the bad luck that he suffered early on when a penalty from Cecilio Dominguez deflected off both posts before hitting the Croatian and going in.
In their first meeting of the year against the Rapids, Christian Ramirez scored the only Houston goal, set up by Adam Lundqvist, the only goal and assist for both players to this point of the campaign.
Corey Baird, Mateo Bajamich, Teenage Hadebe, Derrick Jones and Matias Vera all have lower-body injuries, while Nico Lemoine is questionable with a right groin strain.
Drew Moor made his 370th career MLS start on Wednesday, becoming the sixth outfield player in MLS history to reach that milestone, while he also made his 200th appearance for the Rapids, joining Pablo Mastroeni as the only players in team history to get to that point.
Cole Bassett picked up his 70th MLS cap, Lalas Abubakar appeared in his 60th game for Colorado, Andre Shinyashiki tied a career-high with his 18th start of the year and Collen Warner was in the starting 11 for the 10th time this season.
Strikers Diego Rubio and Dominique Badji have four and three goals respectively in their careers against the Dynamo, while Michael Barrios has a goal and two assists against Orange Crush in two games this year.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Nelson; Lundqvist, Junqua, Parker, Valentin; Picault, Figueroa, Corona, Garcia; Urruti, Pasher
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Trusty, Moor, Abubakar; Barrios, Bassett, Warner, Kaye; Lewis, Price; Rubio
We say: Houston Dynamo 1-3 Colorado Rapids
The Dynamo are the third-worst team in MLS when it comes to aerial duels, winning only 48.8% of them heading into this match which should make them easy prey for a Rapids side who are third in the league in aerial duels themselves, winning 53.3% of theirs.
Colorado have been dynamite in dead-ball situations, which is one of the many flaws in the Houston game, so we should see the Rapids have their way with the Dynamo in the air.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Colorado Rapids win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
