Honduras have a chance to play the role of spoiler once again when they welcome Mexico to Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano in San Pedro for World Cup 2022 qualifying on Sunday.
On Thursday, La H picked up their fourth point in the Octagon, drawing 1-1 with Panama, while El Tri failed to score at home versus the USA in a match that wound up goalless.
Match preview
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The dream of a fourth World Cup appearance has been over for quite some time, but Hernan Dario Gomez and his side showed last week that they are not ready to pack it in just yet.
Despite falling behind when Rolando Blackburn scored after 23 minutes, the Hondurans fought hard in the second half and were rewarded with an equaliser, earning their first point in the Octagon since a 0-0 draw versus Costa Rica last year.
Thursday's draw was also the first positive result for Gomez since replacing Fabian Coito as manager in October, although we saw some of the old Honduran habits from previous games creep up once again versus Panama.
Throughout qualification, this group have made it far too easy for opposing teams to get through their midfield, but they were fortunate that the Panamanians failed to make them pay more often than not.
Another reason why this team will not participate in the World Cup this November is because they have failed to pick up points at home, earning only one draw in San Pedro back in October while being outscored 13-3 in Honduras in this qualifying round.
They have dropped their last three fixtures to the Mexicans, including a 3-0 defeat against them at Estadio Azteca in 2021, although Los Catrachos managed to beat El Tri in their previous encounter on home soil, coming back twice from a goal behind, before winning 3-2 in 2017.
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In what was at times a sloppy and physical affair on Thursday, Mexico came away with a single point at home to their American rivals.
Gerardo Martino saw his side on the ball for most of that contest, but in the end, they were lucky to come out of the match unscathed, as Jordan Pefok inexplicably missed a golden opportunity that could have given the US all three points in the second half.
The Mexicans were indeed caught napping on a few occasions, though they were active themselves, moving the ball quickly up the pitch, only to have their touches in the final third let them down.
In spite of all that, there is still a scenario in which this team can book their place in Qatar this weekend, as a win, combined with a defeat or draw from Costa Rica, would see them qualify for an eighth successive World Cup.
Playing outside of Mexico has been a struggle for them in the Octagon, losing two of their previous three road fixtures and working hard to collect three points in Jamaica earlier this year, scoring twice in the final 10 minutes for a 2-1 comeback victory.
One of the strongest aspects of this team in this final qualifying stage has been their ability to win the ball in midfield and maintain it, as they have been a challenging side to dispossess, with more than 70% possession in four fixtures in the Octagon, which includes their previous match versus the Hondurans.
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Team News
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Kevin Lopez scored his first international goal for Honduras on Thursday, with Kervin Arriaga picking up an assist on the play.
In their previous home fixture against Mexico, an own goal from El Tri keeper Guillermo Ochoa followed by a strike from Romell Quioto helped lead the Hondurans to a famous victory.
With Los Catrachos eliminated, it was no surprise to see Gomez make wholesale changes to his lineup, as Wesly Decas and Cristian Sacaza each collected their first cap for the national side on Thursday, while Marcelo Pereira and Marcelo Santos were also inserted into the starting 11.
Arriaga and Bryan Acosta started in a midfield five, while Quioto played as the lone striker up high for La H earlier this week.
Ochoa picked up his third consecutive clean sheet in qualifying for Mexico, making a brilliant point-blank save in the opening half to deny American striker Christian Pulisic.
Sebastian Cordova, Rogelio Funes Mori and Hirving Lozano each scored in their 3-0 win against Honduras back in October, but this time out, Lozano will be the only one of those three available.
El Tri had four new faces in their starting 11 versus the US, with Jorge Sanchez and Johan Vasquez replacing Julio Cesar Dominguez and Nestor Araujo in defence, while Edson Alvarez played in central midfield instead of Andres Guardado and Jesus Corona replaced Alexis Vega in the attack.
Honduras possible starting lineup:
L. Lopez; Decas, Maldonado, Vargas, Nunez; E. Rodriguez, Arriaga, A. Lopez, Rosales; Quioto, Tejeda
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Arteaga, Montes, Moreno, J. Araujo; Herrera, Lainez, Gutierrez; Lozano, Jimenez, Vega
We say: Honduras 1-3 Mexico
Since the start of this qualifying cycle, the Mexicans have rarely looked like the giants of CONCACAF that we are used to seeing, but they face a group in Honduras who still allow their share of clear-cut scoring opportunities, which El Tri should be able to bury.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 58.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Honduras had a probability of 17.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.11%) and 1-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Honduras win it was 1-0 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Mexico in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mexico.
