With only one goal separating the two sides, HJK Helsinki and Fenerbahce renew hostilities in the second leg of their Europa League playoff tie at the Bolt Arena on Thursday night.
The Turkish giants claimed a 1-0 first-leg advantage thanks to substitute Muhammed Gumuskaya's spectacular effort, but the hosts are still harbouring ambitions of a memorable comeback.
Match preview
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Despite seeing their Champions League hopes go out of the window at the hands of Scandinavian counterparts Malmo, HJK produced the goods against Neftchi Baku to book a blockbuster clash with Fenerbahce, and they held their own for the majority of the encounter.
However, with 65 minutes of the encounter played, Gumuskaya - who had only been introduced three minutes before - picked up the ball on the left-hand side of the area and rifled in a swerving effort to hand his side a priceless first-leg advantage.
HJK are not waving the white flag with the aggregate score only at 1-0, although that defeat did end a seven-game unbeaten run for the 30-time Finnish champions, who returned to winning ways in league action at the weekend with a 1-0 win over Lahti thanks to a winner from Papua New Guinea attacker David Browne.
Victory over Lahti represented HJK's fourth win and fourth clean sheet in five matches in all competitions, and they have not lost a competitive fixture at home since going down 2-1 to Mariehamn in October 2019 - a staggering run of 31 games without defeat at the Bolt Arena.
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A club of Fenerbahce's stature would have undoubtedly hoped to boast a greater first-leg advantage - and it took a moment of magic from Gumuskaya for the Turkish side to even prevail last week - but Vitor Pereira's crop have the lead in the tie and will be under pressure not to throw it away now.
The Turkish giants' rustiness was perhaps understandable given that the first leg was only their second competitive fixture of the new season, but Pereira's men have claimed back-to-back victories over Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor either side of their win over HJK, with three clean sheets to boot.
However, Fenerbahce were forced to call upon the cavalry at the weekend with their battle against Antalyaspor set to end goalless, but Miha Zajc and Enner Valencia came off the bench to net two quickfire goals in the dying embers of the tie and maintain their side's perfect start to the new season.
After a painful three years without any form of continental football, Fenerbahce's first appearance in the Europa League proper since the 2018-19 season is only 90 minutes away, but Pereira's men can take nothing for granted in a battle between two staunch defences.
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Team News
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HJK's medical room welcomed a number of new arrivals during the weekend's fixture with Lahti, as Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan, Anthony Olusanya and Matti Peltola were all forced off with various issues.
However, none of the trio would have been expected to start this encounter, with Toni Koskela ringing the changes in the league in order to keep his big-hitters fresh for the second leg.
Finland's ninth-most capped player Tim Sparv is one of several players that the hosts should reintroduce to the first XI, with Riku Riski and Filip Valencic also expected to operate in the final third.
As for Fenerbahce, Ozan Tufan has recently completed a loan move to Watford, while Irfan Kahveci and Filip Novak have been ruled out of the second leg after picking up hamstring and muscle injuries respectively in the first leg.
The duo join a hefty contingent of injured players including Mert Hakan Yandas, Dimitrios Pelkas and Serdar Dursun, while Kahveci's spot in the team should be filled by former Blackpool and Queens Park Rangers winger Bright Osayi-Samuel.
Mesut Ozil only given a run-out from the bench at the weekend but is sure to find himself back in the team here, while Novak's absence leaves the visitors without a recognised left-back, so Ferdi Kadioglu could be forced to switch flanks.
HJK Helsinki possible starting lineup:
Tannander; Saksela, Moren, O'Shaughnessy, Murillo; Sparv, Jair; Riku Riski, Valencic, Browne; Roope Riski
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Bayindir; Tisserand, Aziz, Szalai; Sangare, Gustavo, Sosa, Kadioglu; Osayi-Samuel, Zajc, Ozil
We say: HJK Helsinki 0-1 Fenerbahce (Fenerbahce win 2-0 on aggregate)
HJK's home record is a sight to behold, and having only come unstuck in the first leg from an unstoppable long-range strike, the Finnish side's supporters can dare to dream.
However, Fenerbahce appear to be finding their groove early in the season and also know a thing or two about keeping clean sheets, so we can see the Turkish side condemning HJK to a rare home defeat by another 1-0 scoreline en route to the group stage.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.
