Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olympiacos win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 33.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olympiacos win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 1-2 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Olympiacos would win this match.