Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ionikos win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ionikos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Asteras Tripolis win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ionikos in this match.