Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Aris Thessaloniki had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AEK Athens win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.36%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Aris Thessaloniki win was 2-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AEK Athens in this match.