Without a win in five Serie A games, struggling Genoa take on in-form Roma on Sunday afternoon at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
The visiting Giallorossi are now looking for three wins on the spin, having followed an impressive dismissal of Fiorentina last week with victory in Europe on Thursday.
Match preview
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After a hard-fought draw against city rivals Sampdoria in the derby, Genoa sunk to a disappointing defeat at home to Torino in midweek, as they caught up on a fixture which was postponed due to a major COVID-19 outbreak at the club.
Gianluca Scamacca's late consolation strike - the Azzurrini starlet's second goal in as many games - came too late to complete an unlikely Grifone comeback, with goalkeeper Mattia Perin even going up field for a free kick in the dying moments, as the hosts stayed rooted on five points in 16th place.
Genoa have found this particular fixture a difficult one in the recent past, as the Rossoblu's last win against Roma in Serie A was as far back as May 2014 - drawing three and losing nine since. Not only that, but Genoa's current coach Rolando Maran has won only one of 13 Serie A encounters with the capital club - when in charge of Catania - drawing six and losing six to date.
In the opposite dugout, Roma manager Paulo Fonseca's reign has not always been a straightforward one, certainly when it comes to building a consistent and reliable defence. After a comfortable 2-0 win against mediocre Fiorentina last week, Roma could now potentially keep a clean sheet for two straight league games for the first time since May 2019.
The Giallorossi are sitting alongside or just behind most of their major Serie A rivals, such as Napoli, Inter Milan and Juventus, as Fonseca's plans seem to be finally bearing some fruit.
In Europe, too, Roma's shadow side have been successful - on Thursday they dismantled Romanian champions CFR Cluj 5-0, with stand-in striker Borja Mayoral bagging a brace. The Spanish forward, on loan from Real Madrid, may now be pressed into service on a more regular basis due to the significant news which resonated around Rome on Friday.
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Star striker Edin Dzeko, who only recently got back on track after a summer disrupted by unending transfer speculation, announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19 and will be entering a period of quarantine. Therefore, for the trip north on Sunday, Mayoral will have to bear the burden as Roma's attacking focal point.
He will be ably assisted, though, by experienced forwards Pedro - who has found the target three times so far - and Henrikh Mkhitaryan, who has racked up five assists already. Roma have scored more than double Genoa's meagre six strikes and certainly have enough firepower waiting in the wings to trouble the Grifone's new-look four-man defence.
These two sides last faced each other in January, with Roma winning 3-1. The likelihood of Genoa improving on that result is perhaps slim given their respective fortunes since, and under-fire coach Maran would gladly take a point from this challenging encounter.
Genoa Serie A form: WLDLDL
Genoa form (all competitions): LDLWDL
Roma Serie A form: LDWWDW
Roma form (all competitions): WWDDWW
Team News
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Maran's Genoa will be without midfielder Francesco Cassata, though Uzbek striker Eldor Shomurodov may now be ready to return from a thigh injury. On-loan right-back Davide Zappacosta and midfielder Stefano Sturaro are definitely both still out. Experienced centre-back Cristian Zapata tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday, so misses out.
In-form forward Gianluca Scamacca, on loan from Sassuolo, will lead the line again, with Shomurodov - if fit - and Mattia Destro also in contention to feature from the bench.
Roma's Carles Perez suffered a minor thigh problem in Europa League action during the week, but may still be fit for the bench.
Neither Amadou Diawara or Riccardo Calafiori have not yet completed COVID-19 quarantine protocols, while long-term absentee Javier Pastore is expected to resume training during the international break.
Davide Santon is definitely out of action, however, as is Bosnian talisman Edin Dzeko, who tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Biraschi, Goldaniga, Bani, Criscito; Lerager, Badelj, Rovella; Pandev, Zajc; Scamacca
Roma possible starting lineup:
Mirante; Mancini, Smalling, Kumbulla; Karsdorp, Veretout, Pellegrini, Spinazzola; Pedro, Mkhitaryan; Mayoral
We say: Genoa 0-2 Roma
The gulf in form and class will be just too much for the home side to bridge on Sunday, with ruthless Roma switching up a gear in recent weeks.
Genoa are set to linger around the lower echelons of the table for some time, as we expect another pointless encounter to leave them on just five points from their first seven Serie A games.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 53.61%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 23.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.7%) and 0-2 (8.78%). The likeliest Genoa win was 2-1 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
